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Friday, September 12, 2008

Really Bob Raissman? Lets Take a Better Look...

So here's the article. More or less, my issue is that Raissman wants Girardi and Cashman to bite the bullet for this season's failures. And he waxes poetic about how Joe Torre could have fixed it all and seen us through to the post-season... and I'm not buying. Lets get started...

Monday night, with the Angels on their way to a 12-1 romp, Michael Kay decided it was safe to lower the boom. Gee, it only took him 144 games to - on Al Yankzeera - figure out the time was right to express disdain for this poorly constructed, underachieving team.

So wait... you mean, they waited until it's basically a mathematical impossibility to really criticize a team that, up until 2 or 3 weeks ago, still could have made the playoffs, and ultimately won the World Series? God forbid! Maybe their job isn't to be sensational and sell newspapers like say... your job. And "poorly constructed" how? Hughes and Kennedy pitched great last year and looked ready to make the jump. Chamberlain was a lock to give them great innings. Wang was a back-to-back 19 game winner. Melky had a nice year in CF in 2007. A-Rod, Jeter, Cano and Giambi were probably the best offensive infield in baseball. Abreu and Matsui can mash. And Posada was coming off a career year. Morgan Ensberg was on the bench, a former 30-homer guy... Betemit had "loads of potential." Damon was our 4th outfielder for crying out loud. Mussina was supposed to be our 5-starter! Who was more stacked than us?

That's why, as the Yankees play out the string, don't expect Kay, or any other Yankees mouthpiece, to mention the name Joe Torre and speculate about what his presence would have meant to this team.

Why is this about Joe Torre? The fucking Dodgers have a WORSE RECORD THAN THE YANKEES!! THEY'VE WON LESS GAMES!! You're telling me that if Joe Torre was the manager, the Yankees would be in the NL West this year? Not to mention that Joe Torre's Dodgers were a below .500 team until they hijacked Manny Ramirez and he batted .400 for a month in the middle of their lineup!!!!

What of Cashman's decision to put all his faith in two young pitchers, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy?

It backfired. We get it. There was no reason to think these kids would be so bad, and so hurt. They were both great in 2007 and looked ready to make the jump to being front-line starters, which they still may become. People have whined for 10 years about the Yankees free-spending ways... and when they go with homegrown kids instead of $20M Santana, you wanna bash them? Pick a side of the fence guys.

Here's the deal: Rewind to spring training. There was all this hype, coming out of YES and other media outlets, contrasting Girardi's style to that of Torre's.

No, Bob Raissman, here's the fucking deal. Everybody got hurt. Everybody. Lets look at who got hurt, and what that cost the Yankees based on 2007 production, or in the case of youngsters, reasonable 2008 projections.

2007
Chien-Ming Wang - 19 wins, 218 innings at a 124 ERA+ in 2007.
Phil Hughes - 10 wins, 150 innings at about a 120 ERA+ projected.
Ian Kennedy - 8 wins, 150 innings at about a 110 ERA+ projected.
Joba Chamberlain - 150 innings at about a 150 ERA+, 180 K's and about 10 wins projected.
Jorge Posada - .338/.426/.543 with 20 HR and 42 doubles in 506 ABs in 2007.
Hideki Matsui - .285/.367/.488 with 25 HR and 28 doubles in 547 ABs in 2007.

2008
Chien-Ming Wang - 8 wins, 95 innings. (Loss of 11 wins, 123 IP)
Phil Hughes - 0 wins, 22 innings (Loss of 10 wins, 128 IP)
Ian Kennedy - 0 wins, 40 innings (Loss of 8 wins, 110 IP)
Joba Chamberlain - 4 wins, 93 innings (Loss of 6 wins, 57 IP)
Jorge Posada - .268/.364/.411 with 3 HR and 13 doubles in 168 ABs (Loss of 338 ABs of OPS .969)
Hideki Matsui - .297/.375/.430 with 9 HR and 17 doubles in 330 ABs (Loss of 217 ABs of OPS .805)

So again, in summation, show me a team that can lose 418 innings of above-league-average pitching, about 35 wins, about 30 homers, 200 RBIs, 50 doubles and 500 at bats of OPS .800+ and still play even .500 baseball. I beg you to do this.

Yes, the Sox lost Ortiz for a while, and Schilling for the year. Beckett and Matsuzaka missed little stretches. Lowell went down for a little while. But their losses don't come CLOSE to what the Yankees have lost this year.

Mussina's overachieved like a mad man. We've gotten half-serviceable innings for Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner and Dan Giese. Xavier Nady's been a man on a mission since coming back to the Big Apple. And A-Rod's been his usual freak of nature. Those are the prime reasons that this isn't an 85-90 loss team with the guys that have gone down.

For the sake of comparison, imagine if the Mets lost Santana, Perez and Pelfrey for the year in May, then lost Maine for 2 months starting in July. And also lost Reyes and Delgado for half the year, and Wright for a month. Where would they be right now?

Or for the D-Rays, picture if Kazmir, Shields and Sonnanstine went down for the year in May, then Matt Garza lost 2 months... and then Pena, Navarro missed half the year, and Crawford missed a month.

Yes, I realize that Crawford, Percival and Longoria are out with injuries. By the time they went down, the Rays had what? A 6-game lead? Aside from Kazmir missing a few starts in April, they haven't had an injury in their rotation or bullpen all year. And aside from Baldelli's genetic condition, they've been VERY healthy.

It's a down year for the Yankees. Jeter struggled all year. Melky was terrible. A-Rod and Giambi have struggled with RSIP. There are aspects where people have underachieved... but the bottom line is... that as a whole, this team has overcome a TON just to be above .500. It's not a championship, but it should be a little bit of a moral victory.

And on the bright side, we'll have Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia next year...

So our top 3 in the rotation should be Sabathia, Chamberlain and Wang. And we'll have A-Rod, Teixeira, Nady, Abreu, Matsui and Posada mashing in the lineup. The future is bright.

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